AUD: Australian Dollar grows as part of technical rebound

The Australian Dollar rate is being technically corrected at the Forex currency market on Wednesday, following drastic sales yesterday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and it goes down, giving a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator goes down as well today, being in the neutral zone and is giving a similar signal.

Forex recommendations: bears can be back after the technical rebound and in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9910 traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9850 and 0.9810.

The following data was released today:

– Leading indicators Westpac decreased by 0.1% m/m in January against the preliminary forecast of +0.8% m/m;

– Number of begun constructions declined by 5.3% on quarterly basis in QIV against the fall by 13.0% a quarter earlier.
As representatives of the Bank of Australia noted yesterday, economy of the country has been growing almost at the level of trend, and current moderately restrictive fiscal policy fits the external situation. 

In addition, according to the RBA, shortage of cash in Australia now amounts to ?$1.437 billion.
The major catalyst for sales of the AUD is investors’ risk aversion, caused by the events in Japan. The situation for the Australian Dollar remains negative. Statistics released last week showed that level of PPI in China increased by 0.8% m/m (+7.2% y/y) in February against the growth by 0.9% m/m a month earlier. Industrial output in China increased by 14.9% y/y in February; on the other hand, level of CPI in China rose by 1.2% m/m (+4.9% y/y) in February against the growth by 1.0% m/m in January. China is the major trading partner of Australia and slowdown in the economy of China will have a negative impact on the Green Continent.

Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.   

 

 

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