AUD: Australian Dollar froze at the lows of eight weeks; however, the currency has prospects to grow

The Australian Dollar rate went down at the Forex currency market on Monday in Asia; however it is on the plus side by the mid trading day.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it goes up, giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal, being n the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: if bullish sentiments for the pair are maintained, buyers’ targets today will become the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9800.
The situation in the Australian economy has remained unchanged at the beginning of new week, although conflict between South Korea and DPRK has left a mark on the trades; however the intervention of China and a call for a truce smoothed over the situation.

Current level of the interest rate in Australia is 4.75%. According to the average forecast of economists and analytics the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Earlier Australian Minister of Finance updated its budget forecast. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. As for the employment sector- unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.

On Friday the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Glenn Stevens stressed that GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 amounted to about 3.5%. At the same time he foresees overheating risks in Asian economy; therefore it is urgently required to reduce growth rate.
The politician explained that the world economic growth in his opinion will exceed 4% this year and current policy of Australia in the field of credit and monetary relations is quite adequate so far.

The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy. However the data released earlier is not that unambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%.

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