AUD: Australian Dollar does not lose hopes for upward correction

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate has been making attempts to regain from the local lows for the second consecutive session; however purchases for the pair AUD/USD are not high.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD crossed the signal line, therefore not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator continues to give a pair sell signal today.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9920, buyers’ targets will become the levels of 0.9960 and 1.0000. Is the upward breakdown will not take place, the pair will continue to consolidate close to the current levels.

In general, medium term trend for the pair AUD/USD will remain downward.

As it became known on Monday morning, PPI index in Australia increased by 0.1% on quarterly basis (+2.7% y/y) in QIV. Note that by the obvious reasons, level of the index will be low in QI 2011.

Australian internal statistics is multifarious as yet. Thus, import and export prices in Australia fell by 8.1% and 3.8% respectively. However, level of consumer confidence in Australia is estimated not so unequivocally; according to ANZ, consumer confidence in Australia amounted to 117 points in January against the level of 112.2 n December. It is interesting that, as per official data, index of consumer sentiment in Australia fell by 5.7% in January against the growth by 0.2% in December, mostly due to the flooding in the country.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for 31 January and market will carefully wait for the comments of the RBA head, as the AUD future will depend on them in the short term.  Interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum. RBA meetings in 2011 are scheduled for: 31 January, 28 February, 4 April, 2 may, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.

The major risk factor for the Australian currency still remains the assessment of the damage caused by the flooding in Queensland in January and its capital Braspene, and the reaction of the Reserve bank of Australia to the experts’ assessment.

 

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