AUD: Australian Dollar decreases due to Chinese statistics

At the Forex currency marketthe Australian Dollar rate goes down on Thursday morning, due to the weakstatistics of China.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in thenegative area for the pair AUD/USD, after broking through the signal line fromtop to bottom and goes down gradually, giving a sell signal. StochasticOscillator is moving along the signal line in the neutral zone, not giving aany signals.

Forex recommendations: off themarket.

Feasible event scenario atForex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0530, the pair will go to 1.0510 ?1.0490. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will go to 1.0590.

The data released today showedthat preliminary PMI HSBC in China fell to 50.1 points in June against thelevel of 51.6 points in May. Australian Dollar reacted negatively to thestatistics of its nearest commercial partner.

Meanwhile, target value of thecoincident indicators index is at the level of +2.9% y/y; while in April thegrowth was only by 0.3% y/y. At the moment it demonstrates downturn in theAustralian economy in Q1. According to the Westpac estimates, scope of impactof the natural disaster on the momentum of economic growth is becoming moreobvious.

Minutes of the last meeting ofthe Reserve Bank of Australia was released the day before yesterday; thedocument stressed that inflationary prospect in the country suggests furthertightening; however recent macro-data does not encourage the rise in the rates.“Current inflation rate is partly due to the deflationary effects of therise in interest rate and slowdown in the increase of expenditure for labourforce,” stressed the document. The AUD fell amid such background, sinceinvestors did not like uncertainty in the views of the RBA.

Interest rate of the ReserveBank of Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum now; next meeting isscheduled for 5 July and Westpac believes that the rise in the rates at thismeeting is hardly probable.

According to the data releasedlast week, consumer confidence index Westpac in Australia fell by 2.6% m/m, to101.2 points in June against preliminary forecast of decline by 1.3%, to 103.9points. In addition, a number of begun construction in Australia increased by3.1% q/q in Q1, while the forecast had been -0.6%. it became known yesterday,that inflation expectations have remained at the level of May at 3.3% q/q inJune.

It became known in the middleof the week that leading indicators index WestpacMelbourne increased to 0.6points, to the level of 280.6 points, which indicates growth of 2.7% on annualbasis and proves stability of economic outlook for the next 3-9 months.