AUD: Australian Dollar declined moderately throughš lack of trade ideas
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar declines at the beginning of the week, as investors apparently took a break after strong volatility last week.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair AUD/USD and is moving along the signal line, not giving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator started to go upward in the neutral zone.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0320, the pair will go to 1.0310 and 1.0300.š If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels.
It became known at the beginning of the week, productivity index in the construction sector of Australia rose to 34.7 points in October against 30.0 points in September. However, the AUD has not responded to statistics, because external background remains mixed and investors’ trading sentiment are close to consolidation.
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced lowering in the interest rate up to 4.50% per annum, by 25 basis points which in general, agreed with expectations. In the follow-up comments the RBA noted that now inflation is being curbed with the help of the high rate of the currency and low demand of population; regulator expects that in 2012 inflation will be at the level of 2-3%. The Bank also recorded deterioration of the conditions in the labour market and decrease in prices for the raw materials. Concerns about developments in Eurozone are still high, and it seems that growth rate of the national economy is going to be moderate. According to RBA, lending rates are now slightly higher than the average level, despite softening of general conditions. It also worth noting, that RBA hinted at further lowering of the rates if general conditions do not improve.
Therefore, the AUD is through the force of two strong circumstances: possible reduction in the interest rate and external negative factor.
According to the data released earlier, consumer confidence WESTPAC in Australia rose by 0.4% m/m, to the level of 97.2 points in October. Monetary politician, Mr. Evans pointed to a chance that the rate might go down in November, since low growth of the index indicates general pessimistic sentiment.
Business confidence NAB in Q3 amounted to -4 points in Q3; while the index had been at the level of +5 points in Q2. According to estimates of the observers, the level of employment, sales and corporate profit in the country has dropped considerably. Business conditions in the three- month term amounted to +5 points against +10 points previously and to the level of +18 points on annual basis against prior +27 points. Sharp decline in the indicator kicked off a quarter earlier, is still going on.
Unemployment rate in Australia declined to 5.2% in September against the level of 5.3% in August. This data shows progress for the first time since this March.š Employment rate rose by 20.4 thousand last month, while analytics expected the growth of not more than 10 thousand. As noted in the Bureau of Statistics in Sydney, coal mining companies hire staff to meet demand for raw materials from China and India.
