AUD: Australian Dollar continues to tend upward

At the Forex currency market on Friday the Australian Dollar continues upward trend which started yesterday.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD; however it goes up, giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today, being in the neutral zone.

Forex recommendations: if the current external background is maintained and in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9880 the pair will go to 0.9920 and 0.9950.

GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis in QIII; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%; the growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. However, the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak.

It became known earlier that retail sales in October amounted to-1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September and trade balance surplus in October was $2.625 billion. It also became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion. All these factors will buck against the AUD.

However the data released later outbalanced existing negativism. Employment rate in Australia demonstrates vigorous growth which is a clear indication of a good recovery rate of the domestic economy. According to the data released today employment rate rose by 54.6 thousand jobs in November; while unemployment rate declined to the level of 5.2% against the previous level of 5.4%.

Investors were very happy to hear the news and the rate of the AUD went up. The importance of the employment growth is hard to overestimate: it will cause the rise in the consumer spending, which will provide additional support to the Australian economy. This explains recent optimism of the head of the RBA Glen Stevens in regards to the outlooks for the economy.

On Tuesday morning a regular meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was held, where the regulator decided to keep current interest rate unchanged, at the level of 4.75% per annum. In general it agreed with the market expectations. The accompanying statement, summarizing the results of today’s meeting said that the rate of the AUD at Forex this year has consolidated considerably, reflecting high prices of raw products and expectations of the monetary policy progress in Australia. The RBA expects that inflation levels will change slightly in the coming quarters, although in the medium-term, inflation growth is possible. The regulator believes that current monetary policy complies is in full compliance with economic realities.

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