AUD: Australian Dollar continues to rise

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to rise after the recent correction; domestic news is a catalyst today.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it goes up, giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator has come into the overbought zone today and is giving a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at the level of 0.9930 the pair will go to 1.0000 and 1.0050. If the level of 0.9850 is exceeded, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9810 and 0.9970. This morning a regular meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was held, where the regulator decided to keep current interest rate unchanged, at the level of 4.75% per annum. In general it agreed with the market expectations. 

GDP in Australia increased by 0.2% on quarterly basis in QIII; while analytics had expected the rise by 0.5%; the growth over last quarter positioned as the lowest over the last two years, therefore GDP dynamics seems to be descending. However, the Australian Dollar rate can resume the decline in the medium term because investors’ concern about problems in Eurozone is still strong and the Euro is still too weak.

It became known earlier that retail sales in October amounted to-1.1% m/m against +0.1% in September and trade balance surplus in October was $2.625 billion. It also became known earlier that current account balance amounted to -?$7.83 billion in QIII against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion. All these factors will buck against the AUD.

The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.

The accompanying statement, summarizing the results of today’s meeting said that the rate of the AUD at Forex this year has consolidated considerably, reflecting high prices of raw products and expectations of the monetary policy progress in Australia. The RBA expects that inflation levels will change slightly in the coming quarters, although in the medium-term, inflation growth is possible. The regulator believes that current monetary policy complies is in full compliance with economic realities.

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