AUD: Australian dollar continues to decline without external support

The Australian Dollar rate continues to decline at the Forex currency market on Tuesday – commodity currency, first of all does not feel support from oil prices and secondly external factors are not in favour of the AUD at the moment.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD and it goes down, which gives grounds for a pair sell signal. Stochastic Oscillator is giving a similar signal today, being in the oversold zone.

Forex recommendations: if the current external background is maintained, traders’ targets will be the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9730 today.

The minutes of the RBA last meeting in November was released today. At that meeting on 2 November interest rate was unexpectedly raised. The document noted that interest rate was raised in order to facilitate the curb in the inflation rise, as mass investments in the mining sector, together with the increase in the employment sector supported the recovery of the national economy.

The minutes of meeting emphasized that the balance of risks has shifted and in the current spectrum moderate tightening of the monetary policy seems reasonable.

Market believes that the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011.

Current level of the interest rate in Australia is at the level of 4.75% per annum.

The Australian Minister of Finance updated budget forecast this week. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012.

At that, new budget deficit will be higher by 41.5 billion AUD in 2010-2011.

As for the employment sector: unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.

 

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