AUD: Australian Dollar continues to decline

The Australian Dollar continued to decline at the Forex currency market on Thursday after slight rebound yesterday – the data on the employment rate in the country amid weak statistics on China have become a catalyst for further sales of the AUD. 

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the positive area for the pair and is moving along the signal line, preventing a clear signal. Stochastic oscillator goes down today, confirming a pair sell signal.

Forex recommendations: in case of breakdown at the level of 1.0050 traders’ targets will be the levels of 1.0010 and 0.9980.
The following Australian news was released today:
– Employment rate in Australia fell by 10.1 thousand in February against the forecast of growth by 20 thousand;
– Unemployment rate in Australia remained at the previous level of 5.0% in February.

However even this data did not upset traders: later China reported the fall of the trade balance in February by $7.30 billion in February against the forecast of growth by $4.90 billion and preliminary level of +$6.46 billion. Exports in China increased by 2.4% y/y last month against the previous  level of 37.7% y/y, imports rose by 19.4% y/y against the forecast of +32.6%.

The decline in the indicators of the nearest trading partner is extremely unfavorable factor for the AUD.
Interest rate is at the level of 4.75% per annum in Australia now. The meetings of RBA in 2011 will be held on 4 April, 2 May, 6 June, 4 July, 1 August, 5 September, 3 October, 31 October, 5 December.  
Statistics released on Tuesday morning showed that index of business confidence increased to 14 points in February, as per NAB estimates, against the previous 4 points. Thus, after the flood in the state of Queensland earlier this year the level of business confidence begun to recover.

However, it should be taken into consideration that retail sector, manufacturing industry and construction sector are in the difficult situation, while sectors of recreation and mining industry have been successfully recovering.

Actually, the Australian economy has slowed down – which has been confirmed by statistics and this factor is negative for the AUD. Finance Minister of Australia Mr. Swan described the rate decision as “good news”, clarifying that echoes of disaster can affect the result of QI, while fundamentals in Australia remains steady. In accordance with the RBA, inflation forecast for this year is in the range of 2-3%.

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