AUD: Australian Dollar continues free fall; however rebound can take place soon

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate on Tuesday continues to fall on Tuesday; however volume of sale is not big already which suggests the possibility of consolidation at the achieved levels and subsequent rebound.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has merged with its signal line and does not give a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator demonstrates intention to grow on Tuesday, giving a pair buy signal.

Forex recommendations: off the market.

Feasible event scenario at Forex: if bullish sentiments will emerge at the market, the pair AUD/USD will start to regain from the decline; while buyers’ targets will be the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9810. If it does not happen, we will see the outset close to the current values.  

 The following Australian news was released today:

– Construction permits in October: +9.3% m/m against -6.6% in September;
– Currenct account balance in QIII: -?$7.83 billion against the forecast of -?$6.60 billion.
Otherwise the situation in Australia remains unchanged.

Current level of the interest rate in Australia is 4.75%. According to the average forecast of economists and analytics the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Earlier Australian Minister of Finance updated its budget forecast. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. As for the employment sector- unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.

The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.
However the data released earlier is not that unambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%.

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