AUD: AUD opposes external background

At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate makes no headway on Thursday, being close to the level of the starting session as it bears pressure from both external background and the recurrence of investors’ interest in risk.

Forex forecast: MACD indicator is in the negative area for the pair AUD/USD, however it goes up, giving grounds for a pair buy signal. Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone today and it does not give a clear signal.

Forex recommendations: if bullish sentiments intensify and the level of 0.9830 is broken down the pair will go to 0.9870 and 0.9900. The level of capital expenditures in Australia increased by 6.2% on quarterly basis in QIII as per Capex estimations against the previous reduction by 4%. Economists’ forecast amounted to +3.1%, which confirmed high level of confidence to the Australian economy.

However the data released on Wednesday is ambiguous – index of leading indicators CB reduced by 0.1% n September against +0.2% in August; volume of completed construction in QIII declined by 2.1% against the forecast of growth by 2.0%. According to the average forecast of economists and analytics the RBA is unlikely to raise interest rate before QIV of 2011. Current level of the interest rate is 4.75% per annum. The Australian Minister of Finance updated its budget forecast this week. Thus, GDP in 2011 is expected to be at the level of 3.5% (growth), in 2012 – 3.75% (unchanged). Net debt will amount to 6.4% by 2012. As for the employment sector- unemployment rate is expected to be at the level of 4.75% in 2011 and at the level of 4.5% in 2012.

Chief newsmaker for Australia is China – the country has increased the level of reserve requirements for the banks for the fifth time this year, which suggests that the Celestial Empire intends to raise the level of the interest rate in the future. This is a negative signal for Australia and AUD. Tension has also been intensified by the conflict between the South and North Koreas.

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